Study: Global demand for growing media could almost quadruple by 2050, opening new opportunities for Lithuanian producers

An international study forecasts rapid market growth, while also warning of future challenges related to raw material supply. According to research conducted by scientists from Wageningen University & Research in the Netherlands and the Flanders Research Institute for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, global demand for growing media could increase by 250–290% by 2050.

The researchers note that, alongside this rapidly growing demand, the sector will also have to address the increasingly important issue of raw material availability. According to Giedrius Kavaliauskas, Head of the Lithuanian Association of Growing Media Producers (ATGA), the study’s findings reflect long-term global trends and create new opportunities for Lithuanian producers.

The direction of growth is clear

The study, published in the scientific journal Frontiers in Horticulture, analyses how demand for growing media is expected to change across different regions of the world by 2050 and whether key raw materials will be sufficient to meet this demand.

According to Giedrius Kavaliauskas, Head of ATGA, the findings are in line with long-term trends observed across the global sector.

“The conclusions of the study appear well-founded and reflect what the industry has been observing for several years. Population growth, rising demand for food, urbanisation and the development of modern cultivation technologies are all inevitably increasing the need for growing media. While this is not a precise forecast, but rather an assessment of possible scenarios, the direction of growth is beyond doubt. In the future, growing media will become an even more important part of the global food production chain,” says G. Kavaliauskas.

Growing media, also known as substrates, are used in the cultivation of edible and ornamental plants, nursery stock and mushrooms. They are a key component of modern horticulture, enabling more efficient use of water and nutrients.

According to the study, the strongest growth is expected in the ornamental plant and nursery sectors. The market is projected to expand most rapidly in China, as well as in other Asian countries, South America and Africa.

Additional export opportunities for Lithuanian producers

According to G. Kavaliauskas, the expansion of the global market could also represent a significant opportunity for Lithuanian producers.

“Lithuanian growing media producers already export the majority of their production to foreign markets. We have long-standing experience, modern production technologies, strong export capabilities and a solid reputation in the professional substrate sector. Growing global demand therefore opens up further opportunities for expansion and gives reason to believe that Lithuania will maintain an important position in the European market while becoming more actively involved in growing global markets,” says the Head of the Association.

In his view, the producers best positioned to gain a competitive advantage in the future will be those capable of offering high-quality products tailored to different cultivation systems and ensuring a stable supply of raw materials.

Peat will remain an important component

One of the key findings of the study is that although the share of peat in the overall growing media market is expected to decline, the absolute volume of peat used by 2050 is likely to remain similar to current levels. According to the researchers, around 59 million cubic metres of peat are currently used each year worldwide for horticultural purposes, and by 2050 this volume is expected to remain within the range of 53–63 million cubic metres.

“This is a highly significant finding. It shows that while the market will see a rapid increase in the use of other raw materials and the percentage share of peat will decline, the absolute demand for peat is expected to remain broadly stable. In professional horticulture, peat remains one of the most important components of growing media, and its role will continue to be significant in 2050. Future substrates will increasingly be based on blends of different materials, but peat will remain an important part of them,” notes G. Kavaliauskas.

According to the study’s scenarios, peat, which currently accounts for around half of the market, could see its share fall to approximately 18–19% by 2050. However, this decline would be driven by faster growth in the use of other raw materials, rather than by a significant reduction in peat consumption.

Growing markets bring new challenges for Europe

The authors of the study also assessed the availability of eight key raw materials used in growing media: peat, coir, wood fibre, bark, compost, mineral wool, perlite and mineral aggregates.

Under the optimistic scenario, the availability of raw materials would be sufficient to meet future demand. However, under a more conservative scenario, the world could require an additional 17 million cubic metres of raw materials by 2050. This raises an important question for European policymakers and market participants: as demand grows, how will sufficient access to raw materials for growing media be ensured, and which alternatives will be able to supplement or replace today’s materials at the volumes required in the future?

According to G. Kavaliauskas, raw material availability will become one of the most important issues for the sector in the years ahead, and this is relevant not only to substrate producers.

“The European Union is pursuing several ambitious goals at the same time: strengthening food security, developing the green economy, restoring ecosystems and expanding greening initiatives. Reliable raw material supply chains are essential to achieving all of these goals. As global demand increases, raw material availability is becoming not only an industry issue, but also a strategic question for Europe’s competitiveness and resilience,” he says.

According to the Head of the Association, the most successful players in the sector will be those able to combine innovation, a diversified raw material base and science-based solutions.