ATGA: Flooding border areas overlooks the realities of modern warfare

In recent months, discussions across Europe have increasingly linked wetland restoration and the flooding of certain territories with defence policy and border security. The debate gained momentum following comments by Jessika Roswall, who raised ideas around nature restoration and “rewilding” border regions in a security context.

Giedrius Kavaliauskas, Executive Director of the Association of Growing Media Producers, stresses the importance of separating emotional public narratives from evidence-based environmental, economic, and security assessments.

“Flooding land is not the same as responsible peatland restoration or ecosystem recovery. These are fundamentally different processes, with distinct goals, methods, and outcomes,” he explains.

According to Kavaliauskas, restoring natural ecosystems should be guided by long-term hydrological, climate, and environmental principles, not short-term geopolitical interpretations or political messaging.

ATGA notes that peatlands drained during the Soviet era, now abandoned and degraded, do indeed require restoration. Such areas lose ecological value, increase emissions, and become an environmental liability. However, the association warns against conflating this with broader narratives about deliberately flooding border regions.

“Wetland restoration must not be turned into a tool for war rhetoric or political slogans. It is a complex issue that requires data-driven decision-making,” says Kavaliauskas.

He also highlights that the vitality of regional communities is a key component of national security. The ability to farm, run businesses, create jobs, and sustain local populations in border areas is strategically important.

“If border regions become economically unattractive, this will only accelerate depopulation and social decline. National security is not just about physical barriers,” he adds.

While historical examples often point to wetlands as natural defensive barriers, ATGA emphasizes the need to consider the realities of modern warfare.

“21st-century warfare relies on technology – drones, missile systems, aviation, and mobility. Opponents are not arriving on horseback, so simplistic historical comparisons can no longer be treated as serious strategic arguments,” Kavaliauskas states.

The association also points out practical limitations raised by experts. Frozen terrain in winter can become accessible even to heavy machinery, and there are relatively few strategic choke points along borders. Moreover, many regions already feature natural barriers such as rivers, forests, and terrain variations.

Large-scale flooding projects would also require complex hydrotechnical solutions, significant land works, water resources, and careful handling of private property rights and legal constraints.

At the same time, ATGA underlines that more advanced tools for assessing territorial resilience already exist. Projects are being developed that use artificial intelligence, satellite data, algorithms, and hydrological models to forecast peatland moisture levels. These technologies enable simulation-based scenarios and more objective evaluation of potential solutions.

“Before making strategic decisions, we need thorough military, hydrological, infrastructure, and socio-economic assessments – not emotional interpretations in the public sphere,” Giedrius Kavaliauskas concludes.